Peace, nuclear disarmament and the Summit of the Future: Breakdown or Breakthrough?

“We are approaching a once-in-a-generation UN summit, bringing together countries from around the world to build international collaboration for a safer, more sustainable and more equitable world”, according to UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a rallying call he made last Thursday (September 12) as part of the preparatory process for the  UN Summit of the Future, which begins on 22 September. 

“The summit should be a platform for bold ideas and concrete commitments that will reinvigorate the UN and multilateralism for the 21st century,” according to Namibian President Nangolo Mbumba, one of the co-facilitators of the preparatory process.

“We stand at the crossroads between breakdown and breakthrough. I’m sure that we will make the right choice,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the other co-facilitator.

Indeed, the aims of the Summit are bold, including to adopt three ground-breaking global agreements: a Pact for the Future on multilateralism for a better tomorrow, a Global Digital Compact which will be an inclusive global framework to overcome digital, data and innovation divides, and a Declaration on Future Generations to ensure the rights and wellbeing of future generations are protected.

Civil society has swung in strongly in support of the Summit and outcome documents through direct engagement with governments and the facilitators, a range of promotional events, establishment of ImPACT Coalitions on the key themes/issues of the Summit and producing parallel documents such as the Peoples Pact for the Future.

But unfortunately, governments remain divided, with many innovative and forward-looking proposals from civil society and  ‘like-minded’ progressive countries being blocked by powerful, authoritarian/repressive governments.

Nuclear disarmament:

The draft text on nuclear disarmament is a case in point. Civil society has been calling for strong commitments on preventing the use of nuclear weapons, replacing nuclear deterrence with common security and achieving the global elimination of nuclear weapons no later than the 100th anniversary of the UN (see Chapter 2, Peoples Pact for the Future).

These calls were taken up by like-minded states and were reflected to some degree in Revision 3 of the Pact for the Future (paragraph 47), which included, inter alia, commitments to:

  • Recommit to the goal of the total elimination of nuclear weapons;
  • Make every effort, especially the nuclear-weapon States, to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict, and to refrain from any inflammatory rhetoric concerning the use of nuclear weapons;
  • Undertake further efforts, especially by the nuclear-weapon States, to reduce and ultimately eliminate all types of nuclear weapons… including by taking steps to critically review the role and significance of nuclear weapons in all military and security concepts, doctrines and policies and avoiding a nuclear arms race.

However, opposition from nuclear-armed states has led, in Rev 4 of the Pact, to the deletion of the second commitment above and the replacement of the third commitment with a much weaker text to “Recognize that while the final objective of the efforts of all States should continue to be general and complete disarmament under effective international control, the immediate goal is elimination of the danger of a nuclear war and implementation of measures to avoid an arms race and clear the path towards lasting peace.”

Peace and the rule of law:

Similarly on the issue of peace and the rule of law. Civil society and like-minded countries have been promoting a number of initiatives on strengthening the rule of law to resolve international conflicts and ensure accountability and justice. These include for all countries to accept the compulsory jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice and to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court.

However, opposition to this from some powerful countries not willing to replace the ‘law’ of force with the force of law, has resulted in Rev 4 of the Pact for the Future giving only qualified support for the ICJ and being silent on the ICC.  

With regard to the ICJ, the text “reaffirm(s) the obligation of all States to comply with the decisions of the International Court of Justice in cases to which they are parties. We decide to: Take appropriate steps to ensure that the International Court of Justice can fully and effectively discharge its mandate and promote awareness of its role in the peaceful settlement of disputes, while respecting that parties to any dispute may also seek other peaceful means of their own choice.”

Rights of Future Generations:

On the rights of future generations, one of the main proposals being advanced by the UN Secretary-General and supported by civil society is for the establishment of a UN Envoy for Future Generations. Such an envoy would provide oversight on UN decision-making with a view to the impact of such decisions on the rights and well-being of future generations.

This proposal found support in Rev 2 of the Declaration on Future Generations (para 42). However, governments opposing this have managed to get this watered down in Rev 3 to only “Taking note of the Secretary-General’s proposal to appoint a Special Envoy for Future Generations to support the implementation of this Declaration.” (para 43).

The Summit of the Future as a springboard for continued action

The UN General Assembly, in deciding that the outcome documents for the Summit should be adopted by consensus, set the scene for universal buy-in by governments to the Summit outcomes, but at the expense of not being able to adopt some of the more progressive measures and commitments that are opposed by a minority of powerful States.

However, this has not stopped civil society and like-minded states from building traction around such progressive measures, and using the Summit of the Future as a springboard for continued action on these.

The ImPACT coalitions on Earth Governance, Future Generations, Just Institutions and the International Court of Justice and  UN Charter Reform, for example, are using the Summit to amplify campaigns on a number of initiatives, including to establish a UN Envoy on Future Generations, build universal acceptance of ICJ jurisdiction and ratification of the Rome Statute, reform the UN Security Council, and establish additional global governance mechanisms such as an International Anti-Corruption Court, Planetary Emergency Platform, International Court for the Environment and a United Nations Parliamentary Assembly.

Further action on these after the summit could lead to success.